ARC win rates
Marine outcomes when 5 arcs exist, with various alien conditions.
One-time analysis for data between March 7, 2026 and September 5, 2026.
“Stomp up” means Stomp is available when there are 5 ARCs. “Stomp not up” means Stomp wasn't available. Rounds with missing research telemetry is excluded.
These are associations, not estimates of Stomp's causal effect.
Rounds that aliens are winning by skill difference will tend to have stomp by the time ARCs get completed.
Stomp overlap
| Group | Rounds | Marine wins | Alien wins | Marine win rate | 95% Wilson interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stomp up | 208 | 81 | 127 | 38.9% | 32.6–45.7% |
| Stomp not up | 264 | 202 | 62 | 76.5% | 71.0–81.2% |
Filtered rounds: 3371. Missing Buildings: 0; missing Research: 0.
Unknown hive state during qualifying ARC periods: 52 rounds / 8971.4 seconds. Undecided outcomes are excluded from win rates.